We will do this in a Q& A fashion, to make things easy…in plain ENGLISH.
What is LIBOR?
LIBOR is the London Interbank Offered Rate. This is an interest rate average, or primary benchmark reference that Lenders, Banks and other Financial Institutions use to determine interest rates for things like your real estate mortgages, credit cards, student loans, corporate loans, bonds and more.
What is the point of this post?
LIBOR is going away, supposedly, at the end of 2021. The process to phase it out has already begun. Realistically, LIBOR probably won’t be completely phased out in 2021, because of the worsening pandemic. LIFE is slower, in general since COVID-19 hit. Anyone else notice how we blinked…and went from Valentine’s Day to Halloween this year, like only a week had passed?
There really is no concrete ETR (estimated time of replacement) set yet…and honestly, the transition could go well into 2022. As with ANY major transition, there are going to be kinks that need working out.
Why is LIBOR going away?
SOFR.
What is SOFR?
SOFR is the Secured Overnight Financing Rate. It was chosen by the ARRC (Alternative Reference Rates Committee) as the recommended alternative to LIBOR. The transition is supervised by the AARRC of the Federal Reserve Board and New York Fed (Federal Reserve Bank of New York).
WHY SOFR instead of LIBOR?
SOFR is a nearly risk-free reference rate. Unlike LIBOR, SOFR is based on actual market transactions, observable prices in the market, is SECURED and is less susceptible to market manipulation. LIBOR is an UNSECURED, forward-looking term rate, determined by what banks would charge each other to borrow. Banks were asked to estimate the rate at which they COULD borrow from other banks, not rates at which they ACTUALLY borrowed.
Can you say “Manipulation”, boys and girls? Bankers were manipulating the rate right after the Great Recession.
SOFR is based on transactions in the Treasury repurchase market and is seen as preferable to LIBOR since it is based on data from observable transactions rather than on estimated borrowing rates.
Um…the transition is NOT going to be easy, is it?
#Nopenopenope
This is not going to be a cakewalk. There is about $200 trillion in outstanding LIBOR contracts and debt. LIBOR has 35 different rates and is all about unsecured loans. SOFR publishes just one rate based exclusively on overnight loans, is risk-free and is all about secured loans backed by T-bonds (Treasury bonds, which are risk free, fixed-rate U.S. government debt securities with a maturity range between 10 and 30 years.).
Repricing contracts is going to be hairy. What will the fallback provisions entail? These are the sections of a loan agreement that describes what happens if LIBOR is no longer available.
The shift to SOFR will affect derivatives (securitized contracts) consumer credit products (like adjustable rate mortgages, or ARMs) private student loans and commercial paper.
What EXACTLY does the switch to SOFR mean for me?
Nothing, if you don’t have an adjustable-rate loan. The combo of super low rates and pandemic uncertainty have borrowers focused on FIXED-rate mortgages. Unless you are an investor, where a 3 to 7-year loan term would work for investment property goals, why WOULDN’T you want a 30-year fixed at a possible 2.75%?
What do I need to dooooo?
If you have an ARM, a reverse mortgage, or a home equity loan, read the FINE PRINT. Is it already SOFR or Treasury based, or is it LIBOR-based?
If it is LIBOR-based, call your Servicer/Lender and ask when they will shift to SOFR and what that change will mean for you.
What is the real fallout of this switch?
Mortgage rates could possibly increase if rate swaps become more expensive for banks. Some borrowers could possibly get charged more…it all will depend. There is still a LOT left to be deciphered.
You may also get that postcard in the mail one day. SOMEBODY is going to claim they were wronged in this. It is inevitable.
You know the infamous class-action lawsuit postcard, where the suit amount is for double-digit millions of dollars….and you smile from ear-to-ear, thinking you are about to get a DECENT-sized check….
...but you receive that $6 check in the mail 8 months later?
Bottom line?
Ready or not, LIBOR’s a leavin’ and SOFR’s a comin’.
We’ll keep you posted.
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